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Advice on fishing opportunities for Northeast Arctic haddock in 2025 in ICES subareas 1 and 2

Author(s): Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG)

Report series: IMR-PINRO 2024-3 Published: 21.06.2024
Subject: Hyse
Research group leader(s): Svein Løkkeborg (Fangst)
Approved by: Research Director(s): Geir Huse Program leader(s):

Stock Name: Northeast Arctic haddock (ICES areas 1 and 2)

Advice on fishing opportunities

The Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) advises that when the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission management plan is applied, catches in 2025 should be no more than 106 912 tonnes.

Stock development over time

Fishing pressure on the stock is below Fpa and Flim and above Fmsy, and the spawning stock biomass is above Bpa and Blim.

Different graphs showing catch history, stock history, recruitment history and fishing mortality.
Figure 1. Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Catch, recruitment, F, SSB and TSB (total stock biomass, age 3+) with 95 % confidence levels. The biomass reference points relate to SSB.

 

The decline in catches and spawning stock is expected to continue until the 2021 year-class is fully recruited to the fishery and spawning stock after age 5 (in 2026).

Catch scenarios

Variable Value Notes
Fages 4–7 (202 4 ) 0.49 TAC constraint
SSB (2025) 128 267  
Rage 3 (2024) 469 037 SAM estimates
Rage 3 (2025) 352 595 RCT3 estimates
Rage 3 (2026) 340 315 RCT3 estimates
Total catch (2024) 141 000 TAC set by 53th JRNFC
Table 1. Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). SSB, catch in tonnes and recruitment in thousands.

 

Basis Total catch (2025) F ages 4−7 (2025) SSB (2026) % SSB change* % TAC change** % Advice change***
Advice basis            
Management plan 106 912 0.35 148 477 16 -24 -16
Other scenarios            
MSY approach: FMSY 106 912 0.35 148 477 16 -24 -16
F = 0 0 0.00 202 674 58 -100 -100
F = F2024 142 841 0.49 131 783 3 1 12
Fpa 137 261 0.47 134 320 5 -3 8
Flim 202 346 0.77 106 114 -17 44 59
Table 2. Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Annual catch options. All weights are in tonnes.

* SSB 2026 relative to SSB 2025.

** Catch in 2025 relative to TAC in 2024 (141 000 t)

*** Catch value for 2025 relative to advice value for 2024 (127 550 t)

The TAC advice for 2025 is 16% lower than the advice and 24% lower than the TAC for 2024 due to a declining stock trend in recent years.

Basis of the advice

Advice basis Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission management plan.
Management plan The current harvest control rule (HCR) for haddock is as follows (see details in Protocol of the 46 th Session of the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission [JNRFC, 2016]):
  • TAC for the next year will be set at level corresponding to FMSY.
  • The TAC should not be changed by more than ±25% compared with the previous year TAC.
  • If the spawning stock falls below Bpa, the procedure for establishing TAC should be based on a fishing mortality that is linearly reduced from FMSY at Bpa to F = 0 at SSB equal to zero. At SSB-levels below Bpa in any of the operational years (current year and a year ahead) there should be no limitations on the year-to-year variations in TAC.
At the 46th Session of the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission in 2016 it was decided to keep the existing HCR for haddock for the next five years. Quota flexibility: In 2014, JNRFC decided that from 2015 onwards, Norway and Russia can transfer to, or borrow from, the following year up to 10% of the country’s quota. ICES evaluated this HCR in 2016 (ICES, 2016) and rechecked it in 2020 (ICES, 2020). ICES concluded that the HCR is precautionary.
Table 3. Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). The basis of the advice.

Quality of the assessment

Retrospective plots
Figure 2. Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Historical assessment results. The shaded areas indicate the 95% confidence intervals for the 2024 assessment.

There was a downward revision of the SSB in this year’s assessment.

Issues relevant for the advice

Due to the temporary suspension of Russian scientists from ICES this assessment was conducted by a Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) consisting of scientists from VNIRO (Russia), and IMR (Norway) (Howell et al., 2024).

This advice has been conducted outside ICES and should not be considered as ICES advice. However, this assessment and advice has been produced following the methodology agreed at the ICES benchmark in 2020 (ICES, 2020).

The 2015-2017 year-classes that have dominated the catches are now being fished out, and the 2018-2020 year-classes are weak, so the stock is declining. Early indications are that the incoming year-classes are average or above average. For the stock to increase, it is important that these year-classes are not fished out before they mature and reach their growth potential.

Reference points

Table 4. Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Reference points, values, and their technical basis.
Framework Reference point Value Technical basis Source
MSY approach MSY Btrigger 80 000 tonnes Bpa ICES (2020)
FMSY 0.35 Stochastic long-term simulations ICES (2020)
Precautionary approach Blim 50 000 tonnes Bloss ICES (2020)
Bpa 80 000 tonnes Blim × exp (1.645 ×  σ ), where σ  = 0.3 ICES (2020)
Flim 0.77 Determined from replacement line leading from SSB = 0 to the geometric mean recruitment at SSB = Blim ICES (2020)
Fpa 0.47 Flim × exp (−1.645 ×  σ ), where σ  = 0.3 ICES (2020)
Management plan SSBMGT 80 000 tonnes Bpa ICES (2020)
FMGT 0.35 FMSY ICES (2020) 

 

Basis of the assessment

Table 5.  Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Basis of the assessment and advice.
ICES stock data category 1
Assessment type Age-based analytical assessment (SAM) that uses catches in the model.
Input data Commercial landings (international landings, ages, and length frequencies from catch sampling); four survey indices (RU-BTr-Q4 (Btr), BS-NoRU-Q1(Aco), BS-NoRu-Q1 (BTr), and Eco-NoRu-Q3 (Btr)); annual maturity and stock weight-at-age data from surveys; from 1984, the natural mortalities are derived from the consumption of haddock (ages 3–6) by cod.
Discards and bycatch Discarding is considered negligible in recent years.
Indicators None.
Other information Last benchmarked in February 2020 (ICES, 2020).
Working group Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG).

History of the advice, catch, and management

Table 6.  Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). ICES advice, agreed TACs, the official and unreported landings, and ICES catches. All weights are in tonnes.
Year ICES advice Catch corresponding to advice Agreed TAC Official catches Unreported landings (included in ICES catches) ICES catches
1987 No increase in F; TAC 160000 250000 154916   154916
1988 No increase in F < 240000 240000 95255   95255
1989 Large reduction in F 69000 83000 58518   58518
1990 No directed fishery - 25000 27182   27182
1991 No directed fishery - 28000 36216   36216
1992 Within safe biological limits 35000 63000 59922   59922
1993 No long-term gains in increasing F 56000 72000 82379   82379
1994 No long-term gains in F > Fmed 97000* 120000 135186   135186
1995 No long-term gains in F > Fmed 122000* 130000 142448   142448
1996 No long-term gains in F > Fmed 169000* 170000 178128   178128
1997 Well below Fmed < 242000 210000 154359   154359
1998 Below Fmed < 120000 130000 100630   100630
1999 Reduce F below Fpa < 74000 78000 83195   83195
2000 Reduce F below Fpa < 37000 62000 68944   68944
2001 Reduce F below Fpa < 66000 85000 89640   89640
2002 Reduce F below Fpa < 64000 85000 96062 18736 114798
2003 Reduce F below Fpa < 101000 101000 105700 33226 138926
2004 Reduce F below Fpa < 120000 130000 124502 33777 158279
2005 Reduce F below Fpa < 106000 117000 118015 40283 158298
2006 Reduce F below Fpa < 112000 120000 131706 21451 153157
2007 Limit catches < 130000 150000 146972 14553 161525
2008 Limit catches to 2001–2004 average < 130000 155000 149776 5828 155604
2009 Apply management plan < 194000 194000 200061 0 200061
2010 Apply management plan < 243000 243000 249200 0 249200
2011 Apply management plan < 303000 303000 309785 0 309785
2012 Apply management plan < 318000 318000 315627 0 315627
2013 Apply management plan < 238000 200000 193744 0 193744
2014 Apply management plan < 150000 178500 177522 0 177522
2015 Apply management plan < 165000 223000 194756 0 194756
2016 Apply management plan < 244000^ 244000 233416 0 233416
2017 Apply management plan ≤ 233000 233000 227588 0 227588
2018 Apply management plan ≤ 202305 202305 191276 0 191276
2019 Apply management plan ≤ 152000 172000 175402 0 175402
2020 Apply management plan ≤ 215000 215000 182468 0 182468
2021 Apply management plan ≤ 232537 232537 204843 0 204743^^
2022 Apply management plan ≤ 178532 178532 176906 0 176906^^
2023 Apply management plan ≤ 170067^^ 170067 178899 0 178899^^
2024 Apply management plan ≤ 127550^^ 141000      
2025 Apply management plan ≤ 106912^^        

* Predicted landings at Fmed.

^ This advice was updated on 7 July 2015 in response to a special request (ICES, 2015) after a mid-year change in TAC in 2015 (from 178500 tonnes to 223000 tonnes).

^^ In 2022-2024 assessment and advice was carried out by the Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) which compiled catches for 2021-2023 and gave advice for 2023-2025.

History of catch and landings

Table 7. Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2. History of official commercial catch and landings by country. All weights are in tonnes.
Year Faroe Islands France Fed. Rep. Germany. Greenland Norway^ Russia** Spain United Kingdom Others Unreported catches*** Total
1960 172 - 5597   46263 57025   45469 125 - 154651
1961 285 220 6304   60862 85345    39650 558 - 193224
1962 83 409 2895   54567 91910   37486 58 - 187408
1963 17 363 2554   59955 63526   19809 - - 146224
1964 - 208 1482   38695 43870   14653 250 - 99158
1965 - 226 1568   60447 41750   14345 242 - 118578
1966 - 1072 2098   82090 48710   27723 85 - 161778
1967 - 1208 1705   51954 57346   24158 26 - 136397
1968 - - 1867   64076 75654   40129 0 - 181726
1969 2 - 1490   67549 24211   37234 334 - 130820
1970 541 - 2119   37716 26802   20423 656 - 88257
1971 81 - 896   45715 15778   16373 62 - 78905
1972 137 - 1433   46700 196224   17166 4493 - 266153
1973 1212 3214 9534   86767 186534   32408 2557 - 322226
1974 925 3601 23409   66164 78548   37663 10847 - 221157
1975 299 5191 15930   55966 65015   28677 4680 - 175758
1976 536 4459 16660   49492 42485   16940 6692 - 137264
1977 213 1510 4798   40118 52210   10878 431 - 110158
1978 466 1411 1521   39955 45895   5766 408 - 95422
1979 343 1198 1948   66849 26365   6454 466 - 103623
1980 497 226 1365   66501 20706   2948 261 - 92504
1981 381 414 2402   63435 13400   1682 22 - 81736
1982 496 53 1258   43702 2900 - 827 0 - 49236
1983 428 - 729   22364 680 139 259 1 - 24600
1984 297 15 400   18813 1103 37 276 4 - 20945
1985 424 21 395   21272 22690 77 153 20 - 45052
1986 893 12 1079   52313 45738 22 431 75 - 100563
1987 464 7 3105   72419 78211 59 563 88 - 154916
1988 1113 116 1323   60823 31293 72 435 80 - 95255
1989 1217 - 171   36451 20062 1 590 26 - 58518
1990 705 - 167   20621 5190 - 494 5 - 27182
1991 1117 - 213   22178 12177 - 514 17 - 36216
1992 1093 151 387 1719 36238 19699 38 596 1 - 59922
1993 546 1215 1165 880 40978 35071 76 1802 646 - 82379
1994 2761 678 2412 770 71171 51822 22 4673 877 - 135186
1995 2833 598 2675 1097 76886 54516 14 3111 718 - 142448
1996 3743 6 942 1510 94527 74239 669 2275 217 - 178128
1997 3327 540 972 1877 103407 41228 364 2340 304 - 154359
1998 1903 241 385 854 75108 20559 257 1229 94 - 100630
1999 1913 64 641 437 48182 30520 652 694 92 - 83195
2000 631 178 880 432 42009 22738 502 747 827 - 68944
2001 1210 324 554 553 49067 34307 1497 1068 1060 - 89640
2002 1564 297 627 858 52247 37157 1505 1125 682 18736 114798
2003 1959 382 918 1363 56485 41142 1330 1018 1103 33226 138926
2004 2484 103 823 1680 62192 54347 54 1250 1569 33777 158279
2005 2138 333 996 15 60850 50012 963 1899 1262 40283 158751
2006 2390 883 989 1830 69272 53313 703 1164 1162 21451 153157
2007 2307 277 1123 1464 71244 66569 125 1351 2511 14553 161525
2008 2687 311 535 1659 72779 68792 283 971 1759 5828 155604
2009 2820 529 1957 1410 104354 85514 317 1315 1845 0 200061
2010 3173 764 3539 1970 123384 111372 379 1758 2862 0 249200
2011 1759 268 1724 2110 158202 139912 502 1379 3929 0 309785
2012 2055 322 1111 3984 159602 143886 441 833 3393 0 315627
2013 1886 342 500 1795 99215 85668 439 639 3260 0 193744
2014 1470 198 340 1150 91306 78725 187 355 3791 0 177522
2015 2459 145 124 1047 95094 91864 246 450 3327 0 194756
2016 2460 340 170 1401 108718 115710 200 575 3838 0 233416
2017 2776 108 170 1810 113132 106714 228 372 2279 0 227588
2018 2333 183 385 1317 93839 90486 169 453 2173 0 191276
2019 1515 143 204 1208 93860 76125 280 456 1611 0 175402
2020 1392 96 282 910 88108 89030 45 320 2286 0 182468
2021^^ 1722 105 365 1101 100673 98296 131 78 2272 0 204743
2022^^ 1831 164 268 1101 89044 82364 99 138 1897 0 176906
2023*^^ 1993 235 296 672 91325 81751 139 112 2376 0 178899 

* Provisional figures.

** USSR prior to 1991.

*** Figures based on Norwegian/Russian illegal, unreported, and unregulated fisheries (IUU) estimates.

^ Landings of coastal haddock in Norwegian statistical areas 06 and 07 (south of Lofoten) are included from 1983.

^^ In 2022-2024 assessment and advice was carried out by the Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) which compiled catches for 2021-2023 and gave advice for 2023-2025.

Summary of the assessment

Table 8. Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Assessment summary. High and low refer to 95% confidence bounds.
Year Recruitment (thousands) SSB (tonnes) Total catch (tonnes) F
Age 3 Low High SSB Low High Ages 4–7 Low High
1950 110038 70318 172195 213098 190932 237837 132125 0.794 0.673 0.935
1951 633959 422176 951982 124868 110849 140660 120077 0.684 0.577 0.811
1952 83966 54059 130419 101012 88332 115513 127660 0.704 0.59 0.84
1953 1186876 792673 1777121 120410 104189 139155 123920 0.532 0.441 0.643
1954 131478 84861 203703 173385 147570 203715 156788 0.431 0.356 0.523
1955 59255 37752 93006 309421 264756 361621 202286 0.449 0.374 0.54
1956 222228 142942 345493 364154 310799 426668 213924 0.475 0.395 0.57
1957 61053 38964 95667 253086 217226 294865 123583 0.428 0.357 0.513
1958 74378 48008 115231 181370 157654 208654 112672 0.519 0.432 0.623
1959 385153 255704 580136 125441 109041 144308 88211 0.446 0.369 0.54
1960 314280 207100 476930 112870 99616 127888 154651 0.54 0.452 0.646
1961 142446 93949 215978 124441 110920 139609 193224 0.664 0.563 0.784
1962 290162 192872 436527 124618 110750 140222 187408 0.794 0.675 0.933
1963 312272 209555 465339 93938 82704 106698 146224 0.76 0.639 0.905
1964 352016 234914 527494 84244 74116 95757 99158 0.634 0.527 0.761
1965 125910 82095 193108 102938 90003 117731 118578 0.526 0.436 0.634
1966 309997 204532 469842 144858 126330 166104 161778 0.559 0.467 0.67
1967 339255 223412 515165 150777 130228 174568 136397 0.444 0.367 0.535
1968 18922 11732 30517 167119 144992 192622 181726 0.486 0.402 0.587
1969 20435 12628 33068 166772 143621 193655 130820 0.416 0.341 0.509
1970 205947 133671 317302 154545 131368 181813 88257 0.387 0.313 0.477
1971 111639 72682 171479 127155 107395 150550 78905 0.329 0.264 0.41
1972 1073335 707532 1628262 128143 111460 147322 266153 0.657 0.54 0.799
1973 310663 206659 467007 125382 108183 145315 322226 0.54 0.443 0.658
1974 65039 42241 100139 153937 134375 176347 221157 0.502 0.416 0.607
1975 59149 38437 91022 194781 167105 227042 175758 0.496 0.414 0.594
1976 59157 37549 93200 195674 168190 227648 137264 0.719 0.606 0.853
1977 120692 76059 191516 118859 100310 140838 110158 0.732 0.605 0.887
1978 213186 141614 320929 80895 67101 97524 95422 0.627 0.511 0.77
1979 160795 106373 243060 62278 52461 73932 103623 0.584 0.472 0.722
1980 23618 14727 37876 62543 53210 73512 87889 0.476 0.383 0.591
1981 11101 6634 18576 72421 61374 85457 77153 0.438 0.352 0.545
1982 16377 9962 26924 68421 56732 82517 46955 0.384 0.306 0.483
1983 8039 4650 13898 58508 48149 71095 24600 0.348 0.273 0.445
1984 13082 7978 21453 53166 43434 65078 20945 0.314 0.243 0.406
1985 357657 235975 542084 49030 40833 58873 45052 0.399 0.314 0.508
1986 476527 315596 719523 54603 46371 64296 100563 0.537 0.428 0.673
1987 92051 59718 141890 77211 66119 90163 154916 0.632 0.509 0.783
1988 39771 24957 63379 79561 67118 94310 95255 0.513 0.412 0.638
1989 27846 17231 44999 84262 69611 101996 58518 0.372 0.295 0.467
1990 36089 23201 56137 86042 70285 105332 27182 0.211 0.166 0.269
1991 107694 75940 152726 100226 84352 119086 36216 0.239 0.191 0.299
1992 317850 227133 444801 110116 95315 127214 59922 0.296 0.239 0.367
1993 812363 593836 1111307 123913 109413 140334 82379 0.321 0.262 0.393
1994 389416 316627 478938 154765 138530 172902 135186 0.376 0.311 0.454
1995 99474 78314 126352 190437 170166 213122 142448 0.305 0.257 0.363
1996 98946 78328 124993 216671 193990 242004 178128 0.374 0.319 0.438
1997 118812 94279 149730 186707 166912 208851 154359 0.454 0.385 0.535
1998 63028 49180 80776 129431 114942 145745 100630 0.457 0.384 0.544
1999 147657 118952 183289 94302 83762 106169 83195 0.465 0.387 0.56
2000 83270 65838 105318 78990 70062 89054 68944 0.342 0.281 0.417
2001 359701 296740 436021 92264 82413 103292 89640 0.371 0.309 0.446
2002 386866 318438 469997 109407 97831 122354 114798 0.355 0.296 0.426
2003 332712 270243 409620 138630 124677 154143 138926 0.43 0.364 0.507
2004 255646 210593 310337 156676 140945 174163 158279 0.396 0.337 0.465
2005 354171 293454 427450 166277 149640 184763 158298 0.412 0.351 0.482
2006 153663 125409 188283 151767 136561 168666 153157 0.376 0.319 0.443
2007 514191 423913 623695 153081 138058 169738 161525 0.394 0.334 0.465
2008 1048186 874520 1256339 161015 144262 179714 155604 0.325 0.273 0.387
2009 982329 820791 1175658 181636 162878 202555 200061 0.27 0.227 0.321
2010 235386 192881 287259 246977 221307 275624 249200 0.254 0.215 0.3
2011 117342 93736 146894 356055 319054 397348 309785 0.267 0.228 0.311
2012 331422 272529 403041 467020 415602 524800 315627 0.229 0.195 0.269
2013 117064 93785 146122 509013 451179 574260 193744 0.153 0.129 0.182
2014 399947 330282 484305 510434 455625 571837 177522 0.159 0.133 0.19
2015 71899 56805 91002 488941 440830 542304 194756 0.194 0.163 0.231
2016 206289 167949 253382 479940 433696 531114 233183 0.267 0.226 0.315
2017 191476 156175 234757 402555 365961 442809 227588 0.356 0.303 0.419
2018 353237 288706 432191 296733 269095 327210 191276 0.414 0.353 0.487
2019 774629 643003 933201 225698 204447 249158 175402 0.452 0.382 0.535
2020 414489 341742 502721 186017 168034 205924 182468 0.479 0.405 0.567
2021 153939 123568 191774 170620 153632 189487 204743 0.495 0.419 0.584
2022 44626 33640 59199 167259 147656 189465 176906 0.424 0.353 0.509
2023 164015 130651 205900 170118 146693 197283 178899 0.45 0.365 0.556
2024 469037 372117 591201 150433 120071 188471        

References

Howell et al. 2024. Report of the Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG). IMR PINRO 2024-7. https://www.hi.no/hi/nettrapporter/imr-pinro-en-2024-7

ICES. 2015. Norway and Russia request to ICES for revised advice for Haddock in Subareas I and II. In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, 2015. ICES Advice 2015, Book 3, Section 3.2.3.1. 9 pp. http://www.ices.dk/sites/pub/Publication%20Reports/Advice/2015/Special_Requests/Norway_Russia_had-arct_update.pdf .

ICES 2016. Report of the second Workshop on Management Plan Evaluation on Northeast Arctic cod and haddock and Barents Sea capelin (WKNEAMP-2), 25-28 January 2016, Kirkenes, Norway. ICES CM 2016/ACOM:47, 76 pp.

JNRFC. 2016. Protocol of the 46th Session of the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission, 17–20 October 2016 (In Russian). 117 pp. Available at: http://www.jointfish.com/rus/content/download/502/6357/file/46-russisk.pdf .

ICES. 2020. Benchmark Workshop for Demersal Species (WKDEM). ICES Scientific Reports, 2:31. 136 pp. http://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5548 .